Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 1737

MD 1737 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1737
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Areas affected...Extreme eastern GA...SC...western NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 231707Z - 231900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across SC and western NC into
the mid-afternoon hours. Tornado watch will likely be issued by
18-19z to account for this threat.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery suggests a well-defined short-wave
trough is ejecting across the TN Valley/northern Gulf States into
the southern Appalachians region. Ahead of this feature, an
elongated corridor of convection, roughly 100 mi wide, extends ahead
of the front from southern GA, north into eastern KY. While
instability should remain weak across the warm sector, partial
partial breaks in cloud cover have contributed to somewhat steeper
low-level lapse rates along an axis from extreme southeast GA into
central SC where values are on the order of 6 C/km. While buoyancy
across this region is only subtly greater than areas near the front,
shallow discrete convection has recently developed across coastal SC
and radar data suggests stronger updrafts are showing signs of
sustained rotation. With time frontal convection should intensify
and embedded circulations are certainly possible given the observed
shear, in addition to the discrete activity evolving ahead of the
frontal band. Tornado threat is expected to increase over the next
few hours and a watch will likely be issued by 18-19z to account for
this developing threat.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 10/23/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   32908234 35038237 36478135 36047980 33018044 32908234 

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