Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 493

MD 0493 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

Mesoscale Discussion 0493
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Areas affected...Eastern South Carolina into far southeast North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191707Z - 191900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing off an outflow boundary and
surface trough may intensify enough to pose a severe hail/damaging
wind risk over the next few hours. Watch issuance is not expected
given the localized nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Deep convective initiation is underway across eastern
SC as thunderstorms develop along an outflow boundary from
early-morning convection. Just ahead of the outflow, deepening
cumulus is noted along a surface trough. Additional thunderstorms
are expected to develop across eastern SC and southeast NC within
the next 1-2 hours as temperatures continue to warm into the low 80s
along and downstream of these surface boundaries. Thermodynamically,
sufficient buoyancy is evidently in place to support deep updrafts;
however, more isolated convection has been short-lived, likely owing
to lingering capping and modest (6-7 C/km) mid-level lapse rates.
Longer-lived convection will likely be tied to stronger forcing
along the outflow/trough that will most likely take on a
clustered/linear storm mode. Regional VWP data and forecast
hodographs show somewhat meager elongation of the deep-layer wind
profile, but sufficient effective bulk shear (around 30-35 knots)
should support some organization of clusters. Consequently, this
activity may pose the threat for large hail (most likely between 0.5
to 1.25 inch in diameter) and damaging winds - especially by the mid
to late afternoon hours as low-level lapse rates steepen downstream
of the developing storms.

..Moore/Smith.. 04/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   33108068 33298022 33818005 34338011 34598014 34908010
            35197986 35357934 35327857 35287816 35067796 34757796
            34397803 34007822 33797841 33557877 33157922 32917954
            32687984 32598005 32538026 32628049 32908073 33108068
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