Mesoscale Discussion
SPC MD 871
MD 0871 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 291... FOR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0871
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1005 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025
Areas affected...Northwest and North-central Kansas...Southern
Nebraska
Concerning...Tornado Watch 291...
Valid 190305Z - 190500Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 291 continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat, along with potential for large
hail and wind damage will continue across parts of
north-central/central Kansas and southern Nebraska.
DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Hastings,
Nebraska shows scattered severe storms ongoing across parts of
southern and Nebraska and north-central Kansas. These storms are
located along and to the east of an axis of moderate instability.
The storms are also located along the western edge of a
strengthening low-level jet. The latest WSR-88D VWP near Hastings,
Nebraska is sampling the low-level jet well, with strong directional
shear in the lowest 2 kilometers and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
near 600 m2/s2. This will continue to be favorable for tornadoes,
mainly further south into north-central and central Kansas, where
instability is stronger and storms are more likely to be
surface-based. Very large hail and wind damage will be possible with
supercells.
Further west into parts of northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska,
a line of strong to severe storms is developing along a frontal
boundary. As this line intensifies, a wind-damage threat may
increase over the next few hours.
..Broyles.. 05/19/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 40849874 41209943 41309991 41210054 41000093 40650102
40170067 39519938 38899896 38689856 38789811 39419784
40059805 40849874
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0832 PM CDT SUN MAY 18 2025
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern and
central Plains this evening and overnight...
* LOCATIONS...
Kansas
Northern Oklahoma
Western and Central Nebraska
* HAZARDS...
Several tornadoes, a few intense
Widespread large hail, some baseball size
Isolated damaging winds
* SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards will remain
possible this evening into tonight across portions of the
southern and central Plains. Multiple strong to intense
tornadoes are possible.
Preparedness actions...
Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they
are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to
NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and
warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable
for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado
warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety,
ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.
&&
..Gleason.. 05/19/2025
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