Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 1590

MD 1590 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 521... FOR ND...FAR NORTHEAST MT...AND NORTH-CENTRAL SD
MD 1590 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1590
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Areas affected...ND...far northeast MT...and north-central SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 521...

Valid 130306Z - 130430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 521
continues.

SUMMARY...A sporadic severe hail and strong gust threat may persist
into the overnight hours, mainly focused from far northeast Montana
across parts of North Dakota into north-central South Dakota. An
additional watch is not planned through 05Z.

DISCUSSION...Several areas of thunderstorms are ongoing from far
northeast MT across parts of ND into western SD. The primary storms
of concern for severe in the next hour will be with two widely
spaced discrete supercells, one to the northwest of Bismarck and the
other east of Glasgow, both of which are along merged outflow
boundaries. The northeast MT supercell will likely weaken as it
encounters increasing MLCIN from both nocturnal boundary-layer
cooling and prior overturning in western to central ND. The
south-central ND to north-central SD corridor should be the more
favored short-term region for severe within the pronounced MLCAPE
gradient and lingering outflow west of a weakening cluster in
east-central ND. A modest increase in low-level southerlies has been
noted in area VWPs over the eastern Dakotas. Given this displacement
to the east of the favored central Dakotas corridor, confidence is
low in how long the severe threat may persist overnight as MLCIN
further increases.

..Grams.. 07/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...

LAT...LON   48949834 47989762 46799808 46419929 45120014 44320129
            44380232 44750270 45530240 46340250 47710519 48260609
            48600598 48690523 48430397 48170287 47800135 47880085
            48949834 

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