Mesoscale Discussion
SPC MD 334
MD 0334 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 89... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN IA...NORTHWEST IL...FAR NORTHEAST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Areas affected...Parts of eastern IA...northwest IL...far northeast
MO
Concerning...Tornado Watch 89...
Valid 022041Z - 022215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 89 continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, hail, and severe gusts will spread
eastward through late afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms has developed across parts of
central/southern IA and far northern MO, immediately in advance of
an eastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant
surface low. A warm front extending eastward from the low continues
to move quickly northward, with ongoing storms expected to persist
as they move eastward across the warm sector.
Ahead of the primary broken line of storms, a supercell has recently
intensified near Ottumwa, IA, where 2-hour surface pressure falls
were maximized on the 20Z surface analysis. This supercell recently
produced 2-inch diameter hail. While surface winds south of the warm
front remain somewhat veered, strong flow just above the surface
(50+ kt at 1-2 km AGL per area VWPs) is supporting 0-1 km SRH of
greater than 200 m2/s2, sufficient to support a tornado threat with
this supercell and any other warm-sector supercell through the
afternoon. Otherwise, large hail and localized severe gusts will
continue to be possible.
Farther southeast, convection is gradually increasing across far
northeast MO/southeast IA, and a supercell or two could evolve
within this region with time, with an attendant threat of all severe
hazards.
..Dean.. 04/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 40299322 41199266 41759303 42209217 42549095 42459048
42259021 41808992 41258988 40568992 39849048 39669239
40299322
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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SPC MD 333
MD 0333 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0333
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026
Areas affected...much of central and eastern Upper
Michigan...adjacent northeastern Wisconsin and portions of northern
Lower Michigan
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 021734Z - 022130Z
SUMMARY...Light to moderate freezing rain is likely to continue to
develop and overspread the region through 5-7 PM EDT, with primary
accrual on elevated surfaces and vegetation.
DISCUSSION...As a still sub-1000 mb surface cyclone continues to
migrate east-northeastward into and through portions of
southern/eastern Iowa this afternoon, a fairly sharp warm frontal
zone to its east-northeast is forecast to continue to surge
northward across Wisconsin and Michigan. This is likely to occur
near the nose of a 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb jet, with strong
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and frontogenetic forcing
maintaining light and developing embedded bands of moderate
precipitation.
While surface temperatures near or just below 30F are likely to also
be maintained at least into late afternoon or early evening, model
forecast soundings indicate notable warming above freezing in a
deepening layer above the surface, northward through much of central
and eastern Upper Michigan by 21-23Z. As this occurs, precipitation
rates may support at least occasional hourly freezing rain accrual
in excess of .10 inches, perhaps up to .25 inches.
..Kerr.. 04/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...
LAT...LON 45178681 44948770 45388892 46308828 46828705 46538410
45548285 44678265 44718363 45378519 45178681
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