Mesoscale Discussion
SPC MD 313
MD 0313 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Areas affected...Southeast Arkansas...Far Northeast
Louisiana...Western Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 310137Z - 310400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop this evening across parts of
southeast Arkansas, far Northeast Louisiana and western Kentucky.
Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front in
central Arkansas, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front
across much of southeastern Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana.
Just ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s F.
This is contributing to MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range,
estimated by the RAP. Along the western edge of the stronger
instability, isolated storms have formed about 40 statute miles
south of Little Rock. The WSR-88D VWP at Little Rock has 0-6 km
shear near 50 knots. This shear environment could support severe
storm development. However, some question remains whether the
large-scale forcing is strong enough for upscale growth of
convection. The RAP has 700-500 mb lapse rates across southeast
Arkansas and western Mississippi around 7.5 C/km, suggesting that
the storms could produce isolated large hail. In addition,
supercells that develop would likely be accompanied by severe wind
gusts.
..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/31/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 34809203 34969139 34909059 34678985 34278960 33578973
33029004 32769065 32729138 32809208 33009253 33309278
33959276 34539244 34809203
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC MD 312
MD 0312 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 76... FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF OHIO...FAR NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...AND FAR WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0813 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Areas affected...Southern half of Ohio...far northeastern
Kentucky...and far western West Virginia
Concerning...Tornado Watch 76...
Valid 310113Z - 310315Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 76 continues.
SUMMARY...A squall line capable of producing severe wind gusts and
mesovortex tornadoes will continue eastward across the southern half
of Ohio. A local extension of Tornado Watch 76 is warranted, and
trends are being monitored for an additional downstream watch as
well.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from ILN depicts a
north/south-oriented squall line with embedded mesovorticies
tracking eastward at around 40 kt across the southern half of Ohio.
Ahead of the line, the ILN 00Z soundings sampled deep low-level
moisture and modest lapse rates -- contributing to 500 J/kg MLCAPE
(higher farther south). Despite the marginal instability, a 40 kt
low-level jet is favoring a clockwise-curved low-level hodograph
with around 330 0-1 km/effective SRH (per the 00Z sounding and
recent VWP data). Given the well-established cold pool and
moist/high-helicity inflow, severe gusts upwards of 70 mph and
mesovortex tornadoes remain possible in the near-term. Tornado Watch
76 will be extended to account for this near-term severe risk, and
areas farther downstream are being monitored for an additional
downstream watch. However, storms will eventually be approaching the
eastern edge of the warm sector, and limited buoyancy will
eventually limit the severe risk.
..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/31/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 39118445 39978413 40308374 40378328 40298208 40038131
39798108 39238099 38658134 38348164 38338225 38538369
38748439 39118445
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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SPC MD 311
MD 0311 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 72...76... FOR FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0311
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Areas affected...Far Northeast Arkansas...Western and Middle
Tennessee...Western Kentucky
Concerning...Tornado Watch 72...76...
Valid 310102Z - 310300Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 72, 76 continues.
SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely develop this evening across
western and middle Tennessee northward into western and central
Kentucky. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed across the
region soon.
DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a well-developed
linear MCS from northeast Arkansas northeastward into far western
Kentucky. Ahead of the MCS, a moderately unstable airmass is
present, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range.
The MCS is located near the exit region of a 60 to 70 knot mid-level
jet, which is providing favorable large-scale ascent and strong
deep-layer shear supportive of severe storms. The latest WSR-88D VWP
at Hopkinsville, Kentucky is sampling the nose of the jet, with 0-6
km shear near 60 knots. The VWP also has strong directional shear in
the lowest 2 km AGL. This shear environment will be favorable for
supercells, embedded in the line or with isolated storms ahead of
the line. Supercells will be accompanied by a threat for large hail
and wind damage. Severe wind gusts will also be possible along the
leading edge of the faster moving line segments. The stronger parts
of the line could produce wind gusts above 70 mph. Supercells that
become particularly intense and remain discrete could have tornado
potential as well.
..Broyles.. 03/31/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 35168730 35858608 36598537 37038517 37368526 37608573
37718669 37658744 37328812 36468950 35909021 35519033
35249022 35038991 34988921 34968826 35168730
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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SPC MD 309
MD 0309 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025
Areas affected...East Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 302308Z - 310145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop across parts of
east Texas early this evening. Isolated large hail, severe wind
gusts, and perhaps a tornado threat will be possible. New weather
watch issuance may eventually be needed.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
through north-central Texas, with a very moist airmass located ahead
of the front over much of east Texas. Surface dewpoints within this
moist airmass are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. The RAP shows
strong instability, with MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg. In addition, the
latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving
into central Texas. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will
increase across east Texas, aiding convective initiation. It
appears that initiation will take place over the next hour. RAP
forecast soundings early this evening in east Texas have 0-6 km
shear of 45 to 50 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8 to 8.5 C/km,
suggesting that large hail will be likely with supercell
development. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible. Supercells may also produce severe gusts, and be
accompanied by an isolated tornado threat.
..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/30/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 30039488 30019527 30029549 30129597 30439625 30959635
31779628 32159608 32399569 32499496 32379431 32069393
31669377 31129360 30739366 30359388 30139429 30039488
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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