Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 500

MD 0500 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 0500
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Areas affected...northern Nebraska into much of central South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 230006Z - 230300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms, some possibly producing damaging gusts,
are expected to develop this evening from parts of northern Nebraska
across central South Dakota. It is uncertain whether coverage of
severe tonight will necessitate a watch.

DISCUSSION...High-based storms have recently produced several
measured severe gusts over west-central SD, though this activity is
rather disorganized. These storms are near a impressive dryline
where a warm and very dry boundary layer exists. 

Visible imagery shows substantial CU still developing along the
dryline across west-central NE, with isolated thunderstorms
developing over Cherry County. Meanwhile, surface observations
indicate dewpoints currently rising into the 40s F in that area,
with 50 or above from LBF south.

As the upper trough moves into the northern High Plains through
early tonight, height falls as well as an increasing low-level jet
to over 50 kt will likely support additional thunderstorms, mainly
from northern NE into central SD. There is some uncertainty how
severe this activity may be as the boundary layer cools and
convective inhibition increases. However, the steep lapse rate
environment combined with increasing lift and moisture may yield at
least a marginal severe wind gust threat.

..Jewell/Hart.. 04/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   42080010 41970064 41860180 42120220 42740231 43950188
            45010119 45280046 45039913 44149819 42489867 42080010 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN