Mesoscale Discussion
SPC MD 566
MD 0566 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0566
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Areas affected...Northwest Texas...Southwest Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 260957Z - 261230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible over the next couple of hours. A brief tornado may
also occur. Although weather watch issuance appears unlikely, the
situation will continue to be monitored.
DISCUSSION...A small severe convective cluster is currently ongoing
across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle and far southwest
Oklahoma. This convection is expected to continue moving eastward
along an east-to-west gradient of instability, where the RAP has
MUCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings eastward
along the projected path of the storms have effective shear near 35
knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment
should be enough to support a continued severe threat over the next
couple of hours. An isolated large hail threat and potential for
severe gusts will be possible, mainly with supercells. In addition,
forecast soundings suggest that enough low-level shear is present
for an isolated tornado threat. The storms will continue to move
eastward across southwest Oklahoma, and trends will be monitored for
additional upscale growth and organization.
..Broyles/Mosier.. 04/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34249977 34039802 34869768 35129801 35229878 35189985
35080032 34900054 34700057 34530052 34340026 34249977
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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SPC MD 565
MD 0565 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174... FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0565
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025
Areas affected...Southern Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174...
Valid 260843Z - 261045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174
continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and severe gusts could
continue for another hour or two. Weather watch extension may become
necessary as the 09Z watch expiration approaches.
DISCUSSION...Latest hi-res radar imagery from Amarillo shows an MCS
over the southern Texas Panhandle extending westward into
northeastern New Mexico. This relatively large cluster of storms is
located along an east-to-west oriented instability gradient, with
the RAP suggesting that MLCAPE is in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range.
These storms are being supported by large-scale associated with
shortwave trough over west Texas, and by warm advection that is
occurring over the southern Plains. The WSR-88D VWP from Amarillo
has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with an abrupt wind shift around 1 km
above ground level. This amount of deep-layer shear will be
sufficient for supercells, with large hail as the primary threat.
Isolated severe gusts will also be possible. The severe threat my
last for a couple more hours, and could necessitate a watch
extension.
..Broyles.. 04/26/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34459998 34270044 34230133 34260246 34470297 34760301
34960294 35130263 35140179 35100012 34459998
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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