Mesoscale Discussion
SPC MD 697
MD 0697 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 196... FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 0697
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of West Texas into Northwest Texas.
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196...
Valid 102011Z - 102145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196
continues.
SUMMARY...Hail producing supercells across West Texas and Northwest
Texas are expected to congeal into an MCS by late afternoon/evening
with an increasing severe wind threat.
DISCUSSION...2 distinct areas of supercell development have emerged
near the surface low and near the confluence of the outflow boundary
and synoptic front. Elsewhere, convergence does not appear to be
sufficient for development at this time. The composite front
continues to move south rather quickly across Northwest Texas.
Therefore, the tornado threat may be somewhat lower than previously
thought as supercells continue to get undercut. However, some
tornado threat may exist with the Mitchell county supercell as it
interacts with the front. Given the strongly unstable environment
and increasing shear (KDYX VWP now sampling 40 knots at 6-7km), the
large hail threat will persist for several more hours. In addition,
given the development of several supercells in close proximity to
one another, upscale growth into one or more southeastward moving
clusters/MCSs seems likely by late afternoon. Once this occurs, the
large hail threat will likely transition to more of a severe wind
threat.
..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32650161 32910091 33119931 32839842 32489750 31489749
30989810 30559961 30450072 30510125 30950188 32650161
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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SPC MD 696
MD 0696 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0696
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of the lower Mississippi River Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 101954Z - 102130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms may bring a risk for
isolated damaging wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail
this afternoon/evening.
DISCUSSION...Filtered diurnal heating amid lingering cloud cover is
contributing to modest air mass modification across portions of the
lower Mississippi Valley in the wake of overnight convection, with
latest mesoanalysis indicating MLCAPE has increased to 1250-2000
J/kg across the region. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is
ongoing within this air mass along several surface boundaries. While
low-level flow remains meager (per the LZK VWP), modest westerly
flow aloft is supporting effective bulk shear of 30-35 kts. This
will be sufficient to support a mix of multicells and marginal
supercell structures through the afternoon. Modestly steep low-level
lapse rates (greater than 7 C/km per latest mesoanalysis) may foster
an isolated risk for damaging wind gusts. Small to marginally severe
hail may also be possible with more robust updrafts despite
generally poor mid-level lapse rates. Given the expectation for the
severe risk to remain limited in magnitude and coverage, watch
issuance is unlikely.
..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 33749274 34059308 34629347 35259358 35669352 35979330
36029287 35949162 35629044 35128973 34628915 34168911
33678930 33328974 33229043 33379135 33749274
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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SPC MD 695
MD 0695 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 0695
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 101910Z - 102145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated low-topped convection may produce locally strong
wind gusts, with an isolated damaging wind gust or two possible.
DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts isolated,
low-topped convection developing along portions of the
Appalachians/Blue Ridge. While low-level moisture will limited ahead
of an approaching cold front (surface dewpoints in the 40s to
low-50s F), latest mesoanalysis and recent ACARS profiles from
DCA/BWI depict weak buoyancy (100-300+ J/kg MLCAPE), steep low-level
lapse rates (8.5-9.0 C/km), and deep, well-mixed boundary layers
across the region. This will promote some potential for isolated
gusty winds, and perhaps a damaging wind gust or two, with any
stronger downdrafts as convection spreads eastward across the area.
With the severe risk forecast to remain limited in coverage and
magnitude, watch issuance is not expected.
..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 39347927 39737824 39917767 40147705 40257666 40447614
40527559 40507519 40357492 40087501 39777529 39477564
39237591 38827640 38287730 37917828 37677898 37717973
37878041 38078068 38328071 38898012 39347927
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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