Mesoscale Discussion
SPC MD 2093
MD 2093 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL PA...FAR NORTHERN WV...AND WESTERN MD
Mesoscale Discussion 2093
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Areas affected...Portions of western/central PA...far northern
WV...and western MD
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614...
Valid 222300Z - 230030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614
continues.
SUMMARY...The risk of locally damaging wind gusts continues in the
near term, though the severe risk should gradually decrease into
central Pennsylvania. Therefore, a downstream watch should not be
needed.
DISCUSSION...A strongly forced, north/south-oriented band of storms
is tracking eastward across western PA, with additional pre-frontal
cells evolving in the cooler air downstream. Given a
well-established cold pool and around 30 kt of 0-6 km shear (per CCX
VWP) oriented perpendicular to the gust front, the risk of locally
damaging wind gusts will continue in the near term. However, the
immediate downstream air mass is characterized by cooler surface
temperatures/weaker buoyancy, which should tend to limit the severe
risk with eastward extent into central PA this evening. Therefore,
while a localized risk of strong/locally damaging wind gusts could
persist slightly east of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614, a downstream
watch is not currently expected.
..Weinman.. 08/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
LAT...LON 39627968 40477943 41627892 41857858 41817800 41637758
41397743 40757751 40157776 39507815 39177882 39337961
39627968
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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SPC MD 2092
MD 2092 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
Mesoscale Discussion 2092
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Columbia Basin and northern
Rockies.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 222204Z - 230000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps some hail are possible
with scattered thunderstorms across WA, northern ID and into western
MT. While an isolated severe storm is possible, a WW is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...As of 22 UTC, GOES WV imagery showed an arc of
convection ongoing from the Columbia Basin to the northern Rockies
associated with an upper low off the WA/OR coast. Diurnal heating of
a modified/remnant monsoon air mass has resulted in weak buoyancy
over much of the Northwest. Scattered thunderstorms have developed
across the higher terrain and a weak wind shift across the western
Columbia Basin. Storm coverage is forecast to increase over the next
couple of hours through peak heating, coinciding with some
intensification of the ongoing/anticipated storms.
A belt of stronger southwesterly flow aloft is overspreading the
weakly unstable air mass, supporting elongated mid and upper-level
hodographs. This could result in some modest storm organization into
clusters or transient supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse
rates, especially closer to the upper low over WA where mid-level
temperatures are cooler, could support a few stronger updrafts
capable of marginally severe hail and damaging downburst winds.
While an isolated severe risk is possible from WA into northern ID
and northwest MT, the weak buoyancy and limited moisture should
limit overall storm organization/intensity such that a WW is
unlikely.
..Lyons/Thompson.. 08/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...SEW...
LAT...LON 47941313 46741237 45141194 44021274 44451443 44911552
46581763 47031840 47151893 47141990 47202040 47412096
47752118 48602120 49022098 49142051 49131704 49081484
47941313
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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SPC MD 2091
MD 2091 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2091
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026
Areas affected...Portions of western/central Virginia and northern
North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 222202Z - 230030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage while
spreading eastward into this evening. The primary concern is locally
damaging wind gusts. While a watch is not currently expected, trends
are being monitored.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage along the Blue
Ridge in western VA, potentially aided by increasing midlevel height
falls preceding a broad midlevel trough approaching the region from
the west. Over the next few hours, these storms should continue
spreading eastward across western/central VA and northern NC. A
warm, moist, and uncapped air mass downstream should support a
modest increase in thunderstorm coverage. While midlevel lapse rates
are limiting overall buoyancy (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE), an
elongated midlevel hodograph (40 kt of 0-6 km shear per FCX VWP)
could promote a few loosely organized clusters capable of producing
locally damaging wind gusts. While the overall risk may remain too
localized/sparse for a watch, trends are being monitored.
..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/22/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
LAT...LON 36568122 36908125 37628037 38057977 38737887 39377837
39447792 39237739 38807712 38207722 36967810 36137933
35987997 36008043 36298116 36568122
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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