Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
600
ABNT20 KNHC 290520
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Two, located in the Bay of Campeche.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Summary for Tropical Depression Two (AT2/AL022025)
...HEAVY RAINS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 the center of Two was located near 19.9, -95.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Two Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025797 WTNT32 KNHC 290833 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 ...HEAVY RAINS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 95.9W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan southward to Tecolutla A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 95.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected later today. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico late today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible before the system reaches the coast of eastern Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning this afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Depression Two Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025408 WTNT22 KNHC 290832 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025 0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 95.9W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 95.9W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 95.6W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.6N 96.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.6N 98.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 95.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 29/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Depression Two Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025103 WTNT42 KNHC 290833 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the depression over the Bay of Campeche this morning and found that the system is quite disorganized. In fact, the depression may not even have a well-defined circulation. Even though the structure of the system is poorly organized, the aircraft data and ship observations indicate that the winds have increased some. Based on that information, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 30 kt. The depression has been moving a little to the south of the previous forecast, and the latest initial motion estimate is 290/8 kt. The system is expected to turn northwestward later today as it tracks along the western periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge. This motion should take the cyclone inland over eastern Mexico late today or tonight. Most of the strong winds are expected to occur to the north of the center along the coast within the tropical storm warning area this afternoon through early Monday. Some slight additional strengthening is possible before the system moves inland. However, none of the models show much intensification and given the poor initial structure and limited time over water, significant strengthening seems highly unlikely. The system is expected to dissipate over the rugged terrain of eastern Mexico on Monday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Two will produce heavy rainfall across portions of northeastern Mexico. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected later today and tonight over portions of eastern Mexico in the tropical storm warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 19.9N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 20.6N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 21.6N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Depression Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 452
FONT12 KNHC 290833
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025
0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
TAMPICO MX 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
TUXPAN MX 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Depression Two Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 08:34:35 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 09:21:19 GMT