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000
ABNT20 KNHC 301132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Melissa, located in between the central Bahamas and Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Summary for Hurricane Melissa (AT3/AL132025)

...MELISSA WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 the center of Melissa was located near 27.8, -71.7 with movement NNE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane Melissa Public Advisory Number 37

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025 
000
WTNT33 KNHC 301451
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
 
...MELISSA WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 71.7W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations should be rushed to
completion in Bermuda before tropical-storm-force winds reach the
island later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 71.7 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and the
hurricane is expected to continue accelerating northeastward during
the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of
Melissa is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda later today
and tonight.
 
Data from Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected today, and a
weakening trend is likely to begin on Friday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will begin on Bermuda late this
afternoon, with hurricane conditions expected there tonight.
 
RAINFALL: An additional 1 to 2 inches is possible today over
portions of Hispaniola.
 
For Bermuda, outer bands of Melissa may bring an inch of rain
through tonight.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas
of onshore winds for Bermuda.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
during the next couple of days, and will spread toward Bermuda later
today. Swells generated by Melissa are also likely to reach the
coast of the Northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada Friday
and persist into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Hurricane Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 37

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2025 
000
WTNT23 KNHC 301451
TCMAT3
 
HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132025
1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N  71.7W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  21 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  65SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  90SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 190SE 110SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 210SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N  71.7W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N  72.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.6N  68.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  70SE  35SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 150SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 37.5N  62.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  70SE  35SW   0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE  80SW  40NW.
34 KT...200NE 230SE 210SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 43.8N  55.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  70SE  35SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE  80SW   0NW.
34 KT...230NE 300SE 280SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 49.5N  48.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE  80SW   0NW.
34 KT...220NE 350SE 270SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 53.3N  43.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT...210NE 340SE 250SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 54.7N  37.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 250SW 220NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 56.6N  26.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 270SE 200SW 220NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 61.0N  19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N  71.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Hurricane Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 37

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025 
000
WTNT43 KNHC 301454
TCDAT3
 
Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
 
Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance recently investigated Melissa and
found winds in the southeast quadrant that supported a 90-kt
intensity.  The central pressure is about 965 mb, based on dropsonde
data.  The wind radii have changed only slightly during the past 12
hours.  The satellite presentation remains fairly impressive, with
an eye feature emerging on GOES 19 imagery over the past couple of
hours.  Some slight additional strengthening is possible for another
few hours while Melissa remains over marginally warm sea-surface
temperatures, but the water temperatures will rapidly decrease
tonight while wind shear rapidly increases.  As a result, Melissa is
expected to quickly lose tropical characteristics once it passes
Bermuda, and it is forecast to become a strong post-tropical cyclone
over the North Atlantic by Friday night.  The latest NHC intensity
forecast remains towards the higher end of the guidance envelope,
and more closely follows the global models during the extratropical
phase.
 
Melissa is accelerating toward the north-northeast, now moving 30
degrees at 21 kt. A faster motion is expected during the next
couple of days as Melissa moves within the flow between a
mid-level trough over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge
over the central Atlantic.  The guidance is in excellent agreement
through the next 48 hours, until after the system makes its closest
approach to Atlantic Canada.  A Hurricane Warning remains in effect
for Bermuda, and Melissa is likely to pass to the west and
northwest of the island tonight.  Melissa should then pass near the
southeastern tip of Newfoundland as a strong extratropical cyclone
on Friday night before turning more towards the east-northeast, and
moving across the North Atlantic this weekend.  No significant
changes were made to the NHC track forecast through 48 hours, but
the track was shifted a bit to the northeast of the previous
forecast from day 3 onward.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning late this afternoon.
Preparations should be rushed to completion.
 
2. Post-storm safety:  Follow advice of local officials as you may
need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines
and flooding. Any flooding across the Bahamas is expected to subside
today. Flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist
for another few days. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and
placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to
avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when
using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 27.8N  71.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 31.6N  68.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 37.5N  62.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 43.8N  55.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  01/1200Z 49.5N  48.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  02/0000Z 53.3N  43.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  02/1200Z 54.7N  37.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  03/1200Z 56.6N  26.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  04/1200Z 61.0N  19.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Hurricane Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2025 
000
FONT13 KNHC 301452
PWSAT3
                                                                    
HURRICANE MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  37               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132025               
1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)  68(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)  11(11)  72(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  41(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)  12(12)  20(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)  20(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
BERMUDA        34 24  62(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
BERMUDA        50  X  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN

Hurricane Melissa Graphics


Hurricane Melissa 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Oct 2025 14:57:39 GMT

Hurricane Melissa 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Oct 2025 15:22:47 GMT