Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 301132
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Melissa, located in between the central Bahamas and Bermuda.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Summary for Hurricane Melissa (AT3/AL132025)
...MELISSA WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 the center of Melissa was located near 27.8, -71.7 with movement NNE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane Melissa Public Advisory Number 37
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025000 WTNT33 KNHC 301451 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025 ...MELISSA WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 71.7W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations should be rushed to completion in Bermuda before tropical-storm-force winds reach the island later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 71.7 West. Melissa is moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and the hurricane is expected to continue accelerating northeastward during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda later today and tonight. Data from Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, and a weakening trend is likely to begin on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will begin on Bermuda late this afternoon, with hurricane conditions expected there tonight. RAINFALL: An additional 1 to 2 inches is possible today over portions of Hispaniola. For Bermuda, outer bands of Melissa may bring an inch of rain through tonight. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore winds for Bermuda. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next couple of days, and will spread toward Bermuda later today. Swells generated by Melissa are also likely to reach the coast of the Northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada Friday and persist into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Hurricane Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 37
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2025000 WTNT23 KNHC 301451 TCMAT3 HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025 1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 71.7W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 65SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 190SE 110SW 140NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 210SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 71.7W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 72.7W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.6N 68.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 70SE 35SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 150SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 37.5N 62.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 70SE 35SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 230SE 210SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 43.8N 55.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 70SE 35SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 0NW. 34 KT...230NE 300SE 280SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 49.5N 48.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 0NW. 34 KT...220NE 350SE 270SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 53.3N 43.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 340SE 250SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 54.7N 37.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 300SE 250SW 220NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 56.6N 26.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 270SE 200SW 220NW. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 61.0N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 71.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Hurricane Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 37
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025000 WTNT43 KNHC 301454 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025 Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance recently investigated Melissa and found winds in the southeast quadrant that supported a 90-kt intensity. The central pressure is about 965 mb, based on dropsonde data. The wind radii have changed only slightly during the past 12 hours. The satellite presentation remains fairly impressive, with an eye feature emerging on GOES 19 imagery over the past couple of hours. Some slight additional strengthening is possible for another few hours while Melissa remains over marginally warm sea-surface temperatures, but the water temperatures will rapidly decrease tonight while wind shear rapidly increases. As a result, Melissa is expected to quickly lose tropical characteristics once it passes Bermuda, and it is forecast to become a strong post-tropical cyclone over the North Atlantic by Friday night. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains towards the higher end of the guidance envelope, and more closely follows the global models during the extratropical phase. Melissa is accelerating toward the north-northeast, now moving 30 degrees at 21 kt. A faster motion is expected during the next couple of days as Melissa moves within the flow between a mid-level trough over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The guidance is in excellent agreement through the next 48 hours, until after the system makes its closest approach to Atlantic Canada. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Bermuda, and Melissa is likely to pass to the west and northwest of the island tonight. Melissa should then pass near the southeastern tip of Newfoundland as a strong extratropical cyclone on Friday night before turning more towards the east-northeast, and moving across the North Atlantic this weekend. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast through 48 hours, but the track was shifted a bit to the northeast of the previous forecast from day 3 onward. Key Messages: 1. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning late this afternoon. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 2. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials as you may need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines and flooding. Any flooding across the Bahamas is expected to subside today. Flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist for another few days. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 27.8N 71.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 31.6N 68.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 37.5N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 43.8N 55.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/1200Z 49.5N 48.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 02/0000Z 53.3N 43.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1200Z 54.7N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/1200Z 56.6N 26.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1200Z 61.0N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Hagen
Hurricane Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2025 000
FONT13 KNHC 301452
PWSAT3
HURRICANE MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 68(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 11(11) 72(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 41(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 12(12) 20(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
BERMUDA 34 24 62(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
BERMUDA 50 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
Hurricane Melissa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Oct 2025 14:57:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Oct 2025 15:22:47 GMT