Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 072331
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located in the central Tropical Atlantic.
Southwestern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure is emerging over the Bay of Campeche from
the Yucatan Peninsula, and continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of
this system is possible before it moves inland again over southern
Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Regardless of development,
areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of
the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and southern Mexico during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102025)
...JERRY NOT WELL ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 07 the center of Jerry was located near 12.8, -48.7 with movement WNW at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025000 WTNT35 KNHC 080234 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025 ...JERRY NOT WELL ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 48.7W ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * St. Barthelemy and St. Martin * Sint Maarten * Saba and St. Eustatius * Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 48.7 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday night or Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday, where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. RAINFALL: On Thursday, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across the Leeward Islands due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2025000 WTNT25 KNHC 080233 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025 0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 48.7W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 48.7W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 47.7W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.6N 51.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.9N 55.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.5N 58.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.1N 60.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.8N 62.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 26.7N 63.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 60SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 31.7N 60.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 80SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 48.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025000 WTNT45 KNHC 080234 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that Jerry is somewhat disorganized this evening. Satellite imagery has been showing an exposed swirl of low-level clouds to the northwest and west of the convective mass, with scatterometer data suggesting this was the western end of an elongated surface circulation. The maximum scatterometer winds were in the 40-45 kt range, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Jerry tomorrow. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 285/20 kt. Jerry is currently on the south side of a strong low-level ridge, and this features should steer the storm west-northwestward for the next couple of days with some decrease in forward speed. This motion should take the core of Jerry near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. This part of the forecast track is close to the various consensus models. However, the global model forecasts lie to the right of the consensus models, while the HAFS/HWRF models and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean are to the left of them. After the cyclone passes the Leeward Islands, it is expected to turn northward and eventually northeastward due to the development of a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States and the western Atlantic. Overall, the new forecast track is nudged just a little to the left of the previous track through 96 h. The latest satellite imagery and model analyses suggest that the environment Jerry is in is not quite as conducive for strengthening as thought earlier, with the cyclone likely to remain in moderate westerly shear for the next two to three days. In addition, the current structure favors a slower development rate. The latest intensity guidance has responded to these developments by being less bullish on developing the storm. While the new intensity forecast calls for the same 85 kt peak intensity as the previous forecast, it shows a slower rate of development, and the new forecast lies above the intensity consensus models. Based on the forecast and the uncertainties, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the northern Leeward Islands. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Jerry. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is forecast to strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches have been issued. 2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands on Thursday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 12.8N 48.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 13.6N 51.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 14.9N 55.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 16.5N 58.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 18.1N 60.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 19.8N 62.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 26.7N 63.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 31.7N 60.1W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2025 000
FONT15 KNHC 080234
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) X(16)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) X(18)
SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT JOHN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 25(41) 1(42) X(42)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SABA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 16(28) 1(29) X(29)
SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 14(29) 1(30) X(30)
ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 13(30) 1(31) X(31)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 38(43) 13(56) X(56) X(56)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 10(23) 1(24) X(24)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARBADOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Oct 2025 02:36:51 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Oct 2025 03:21:46 GMT