Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 301132
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Melissa, located in between the central Bahamas and Bermuda.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Summary for Hurricane Melissa (AT3/AL132025)
...MELISSA WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 the center of Melissa was located near 26.8, -72.7 with movement NNE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane Melissa Public Advisory Number 36a
Issued at 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025000 WTNT33 KNHC 301157 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 36A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025 ...MELISSA WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 72.7W ABOUT 605 MI...980 KM SW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations should be rushed to completion in Bermuda before tropical-storm-force winds reach the island later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 72.7 West. Melissa is moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and the hurricane is expected to continue accelerating northeastward during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, and a weakening trend is likely to begin on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunters is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will begin on Bermuda later today, with hurricane conditions expected there tonight. RAINFALL: Over the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, an additional inch of rain is possible, with storm total maxima up to 10 inches in the southeast Bahamas and storm total maxima up to 4 inches across the Turks and Caicos. Any residual flooding should be waning. Over portions of Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is possible this morning, with storm total accumulations up to 40 inches possible in southern Hispaniola. Across Bermuda, outer bands east of Melissa’s track may bring up t an inch (25 mm) of rain today and tonight. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Water levels should continue to subside through the morning for the southeastern Bahamas. Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore winds for Bermuda. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next couple of days, and will spread toward Bermuda later today, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 36
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 30 2025000 WTNT23 KNHC 300849 TCMAT3 HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025 0900 UTC THU OCT 30 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 73.4W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 50SE 35SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......170NE 170SE 100SW 130NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 73.4W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 73.9W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.0N 70.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 34.4N 65.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 35SW 25NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 40.6N 59.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 230SE 220SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 47.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 50SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 20NW. 34 KT...210NE 250SE 230SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 51.6N 45.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 270SE 240SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 53.9N 40.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 250SE 250SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 55.5N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 210SE 210SW 150NW. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 58.5N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 150SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 73.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Hurricane Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 36
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025000 WTNT43 KNHC 300852 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025 Melissa appears slightly better organized this morning. Overnight GMI passive microwave images showed a closed mid-level eyewall, and there have been hints of a ragged eye feature in recent conventional satellite images with deep convection surrounding the center. Based on these developments, the initial intensity is raised to 90 kt for this advisory, which is supported by a 5.0/90 kt Dvorak classification from SAB. A comparison of the 89 and 37 GHz GMI images indicates the vortex is tilted toward the northeast with height, likely the result of southwesterly shear over the hurricane. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane this morning. Melissa is moving quickly northeastward (030/18 kt) away from the Bahamas. An even faster northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days as Melissa moves within the flow between a mid-level trough over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The tightly clustered track guidance shows the center of Melissa passing to the northwest of Bermuda tonight, and a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the island. Then, Melissa should pass near the southeastern tip of Newfoundland as a strong extratropical cyclone on Friday night before moving across the North Atlantic this weekend. No notable changes were made to the NHC track forecast with this update. Slight additional strengthening is possible today while Melissa remains over warm waters in a diffluent upper-level environment. However, the shear is forecast to become prohibitively strong later tonight and Friday, and Melissa will reach much cooler waters during the next 24-48 h. As a result, Melissa is expected to quickly lose tropical characteristics once it passes Bermuda, and it is forecast to become a strong post-tropical cyclone over the North Atlantic by Friday night or early Saturday. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, and more closely follows the global models during the extratropical phase later in the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 2. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials as you may need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines and flooding. Any flooding across the Bahamas is expected to subside today. Flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist for another few days. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 25.8N 73.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 29.0N 70.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 34.4N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 40.6N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 47.0N 52.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 01/1800Z 51.6N 45.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0600Z 53.9N 40.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0600Z 55.5N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0600Z 58.5N 21.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Hurricane Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 30 2025 422
FONT13 KNHC 300851
PWSAT3
HURRICANE MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0900 UTC THU OCT 30 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 37(37) 27(64) X(64) X(64)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 75(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 37(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 30(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
BERMUDA 34 X 84(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
BERMUDA 50 X 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
BERMUDA 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
Hurricane Melissa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Oct 2025 11:58:51 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Oct 2025 09:22:15 GMT