Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
225
ABPZ20 KNHC 042324
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Karina, located several hundred miles east of the Hawaiian Islands,
on Hurricane Lowell, located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Hurricane Marie, located several
hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.
Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure may develop well offshore of southwestern
Mexico early next week. Gradual development is possible, and a
tropical depression could form around the middle of next week while
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP132026)
...MARIE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 04 the center of Marie was located near 20.8, -119.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 16
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026005 WTPZ33 KNHC 050231 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026 ...MARIE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 119.0W ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 119.0 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin on Saturday and continue for the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and Southern California for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 16
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026867 WTPZ23 KNHC 050231 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026 0300 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 119.0W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT.......170NE 160SE 140SW 180NW. 4 M SEAS....330NE 270SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 119.0W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 118.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.5N 119.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 0SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 140SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.4N 121.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.9N 122.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.5N 123.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.2N 125.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 27.4N 127.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 30.9N 128.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 119.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 16
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026196 WTPZ43 KNHC 050232 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026 Marie continues to display a ragged eye surrounded by a large area of convection with cloud tops between -50 to -60C. Some dry air still appears to be entraining into the core. Recent subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 75-94 kt. Thus, the initial intensity will be held at 85 kt for this advisory. Marie has turned toward the northwest, with an initial motion estimate of 305/7 kt. Marie will continue moving slowly northwestward during the next few days as it passes in between a ridge to its west and ridging to its east. By the middle of next week, an upper-level trough near the U.S. West Coast may cause what is left of Marie to turn more toward the north-northwest in 4 to 5 days. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous forecast, and lies near the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind (GDMI) ensemble mean. It should be noted that model spread is quite large beyond 2 to 3 days. It appears as though Marie has already peaked in intensity (no more strengthening is expected). Although vertical wind shear is expected to remain low for the next 3 days, Marie will be moving into gradually cooler water temperatures as well as a drier air mass. By 48 hours, water temperatures will be below 26C and the mid-level relative humidity will be below 50 percent. The NHC intensity forecast shows Marie weakening to a tropical storm by hour 48, and it shows a slightly faster weakening compared to the previous forecast. The intensity forecast is still near the higher end of the guidance suite. Marie is likely to lose its convection by day 5 and become a post-tropical cyclone, and that scenario is indicated by both the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 20.8N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 21.5N 119.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 22.4N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 23.9N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 24.5N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 25.2N 125.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 27.4N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 30.9N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen
Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026 065
FOPZ13 KNHC 050231
PWSEP3
HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
0300 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 120W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
25N 120W 34 1 9(10) 7(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 43(57) 3(60) X(60)
25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) X(20)
25N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
30N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
Hurricane Marie Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2026 03:33:10 GMT