Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
326
ABPZ20 KNHC 152310
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Simon, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, and on Hurricane
Trudy, located few hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern
Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and
a tropical depression could form during the second half of next week
while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over
the east to central portion of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Kelly
Summary for Hurricane Trudy (EP1/EP212026)
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...TRUDY EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... As of 3:00 PM CST Thu Oct 15 the center of Trudy was located near 13.7, -101.7 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Hurricane Trudy Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Oct 15 2026000 WTPZ31 KNHC 152049 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Trudy Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 PM CST Thu Oct 15 2026 ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...TRUDY EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 101.7W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of Mexico north of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo southward to Zihuatanejo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico north of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo southward to Zihuatanejo. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern and west-central Mexico should continue monitor the progress of Trudy. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Trudy was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 101.7 West. Trudy is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track the center of Trudy will approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday. Trudy has changed little in strength during the past few hours, and maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast to resume tonight, and Trudy is forecast to become a major hurricane Friday or Friday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Trudy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area area by early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread into the hurricane watch area on Saturday. RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches through the weekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Elsewhere, Trudy’s outer bands are expected to produce 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches along the southwest Mexican coast in Guerrero. This rainfall may result in localized flash flooding through the weekend, especially in areas along steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Trudy, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Trudy are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next day or so and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2026000 WTPZ21 KNHC 152048 TCMEP1 HURRICANE TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026 2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 101.7W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 101.7W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 101.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.3N 101.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.2N 102.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.3N 102.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.5N 103.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.8N 104.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.8N 105.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 20.5N 107.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 108.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 101.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 16/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Oct 15 2026000 WTPZ41 KNHC 152049 TCDEP1 Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 PM CST Thu Oct 15 2026 Trudy's intensification appears to have temporarily paused. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the hurricane a few hours ago and reported maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 84 kt and a central pressure near 978 mb. Satellite imagery shows an attempt to form an eye, but it has not yet fully cleared out. The various satellite intensity estimates have changed little over the past few hours, and the initial intensity remains 80 kt based on them and the aircraft data. The satellite imagery suggests a tongue of dry air is wrapping into the cyclone around the north side of the central dense overcast, and this may be responsible for the pause in the development. The initial motion is north-northwestward or 345/5 kt. The hurricane is currently heading for a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough extending from the Yucatan Peninsula westward to central Mexico. During the next 36 h, this feature should weaken and move eastward, allowing a mid- to upper-level ridge to develop over Mexico. This evolution should cause Trudy to turn northwestward roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. The bulk of the track guidance keeps the center just offshore of the coast. However, any track to the right of the official forecast - such as shown by the GFS - would bring the center onshore. After 72 h, low- to mid-level ridging to the north of the cyclone should steer it slowly westward. The new track forecast is a little to the east of the previous forecast through 36 h, similar to the previous forecast from 36-72 h, and a little north of the previous forecast from 72-120 h. Except for the apparent tongue of dry air, conditions appear favorable for steady to rapid development during the next 24-36 h. The new intensity forecast keeps the peak intensity of 125 kt from the previous advisory, which is near or a little above the upper edge of the intensity guidance. After 36 h, there should be increasing southwesterly shear that will likely halt development. Even with the forecast track keeping the center offshore, the cyclone will likely be close enough to land to cause the cyclone to weaken. However, any track to the left and farther offshore of the current forecast would let Trudy stay stronger than currently forecast, while any track that the brings the center inland would cause rapid weakening and possibly dissipation. Beyond 72 h, strong shear should cause continued weakening even though the center is moving away from land. The intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the guidance, and it is near the upper edge of the guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a portion of the southwestern Mexican coast, and additional watches will likely be required further up the coast tonight or Friday. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest Mexican coast between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by the weekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. 3. Large swells will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico Friday and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 13.7N 101.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 14.3N 101.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 15.2N 102.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 16.3N 102.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 17.5N 103.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 18.8N 104.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 19.8N 105.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 20.5N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 20.5N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 152049
PWSEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 14(45) 1(46)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 5(27) 1(28)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 4(37) X(37)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 58(69) 1(70) 1(71)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) 1(38) X(38)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) X(21)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 41(41) 44(85) 1(86) X(86)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 46(57) 1(58) X(58)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) 1(36) X(36)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 33(33) 23(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 9(34) X(34) 1(35) X(35)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Trudy Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2026 21:28:33 GMT
Summary for Tropical Storm Simon (EP5/EP202026)
...SMALL SIMON SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD... ...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 2:00 PM MST Thu Oct 15 the center of Simon was located near 19.3, -108.2 with movement NW at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Simon Public Advisory Number 34
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Oct 15 2026759 WTPZ35 KNHC 152041 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Simon Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 200 PM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 ...SMALL SIMON SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD... ...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 108.2W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur should continue to monitor Simon. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 108.2 West. Simon is moving toward the northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h). A faster northwestward motion is forecast to begin by Friday and continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and Simon is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by this weekend. Simon is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Through early Saturday, Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches over portions of the state of Baja California Sur. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by Simon could affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Simon Forecast Advisory Number 34
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2026000 WTPZ25 KNHC 152039 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026 2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 108.2W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 108.2W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.8N 108.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.8N 110.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.0N 111.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.1N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 108.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Storm Simon Forecast Discussion Number 34
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Oct 15 2026000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152043 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Simon Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 200 PM MST Thu Oct 15 2026 Simon continues to produce an area of deep convection, though this activity has lacked a ton of organization today, and appears to still be displaced to the west of the center of circulation. A RCM-2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) pass that became available after the prior advisory indicated that most of this convective activity was also occurring outside of its radius of maximum winds, and has done little to aid the small circulation. In fact, the peak winds retrieved from the SAR was only 47 kt. This information, combined with a Metop-B scatterometer pass that had a peak wind of 39 kt is justification to bring Simon's intensity down to 45 kt this advisory, and this may still be generous. Simon has been drifting rather aimlessly today, and my best guess at an estimated motion is 320/1 kt. It has been a tough few days trying to forecast Simon's track, but the model guidance this cycle is finally coming into better agreement showing that as Simon becomes a more vertically shallow cyclone, it will primarily be steered by the low-level flow. To that end, a weak low-level trough is forecast to drop equatorward to the west of Simon as a strong pressure gradient develops over northern Mexico as surface ridging builds in behind a frontal boundary. This flow should help to finally draw Simon back to the northwest with a speed up in its forward motion. The latest NHC track forecast is shifted once again a little further west but also faster, following the latest trends in the reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). While the shear over Simon is currently low, it has not taken advantage of these more favorable conditions, likely due to the proximity of dry air preventing the convection from organizing. The vertical wind shear is soon expected to increase significantly out of the southwest as a deep-layer trough located over the southwestern United States cuts off and retrogrades back westward. Simon has already been sensitive to less than pristine conditions, and this increase in shear will likely be the storm's demise. The latest NHC forecast now shows gradual weakening continuing over the next 24-36 h, with Simon becoming a remnant low in 48 h, and fully dissipating in 72 h. If the latest ECMWF forecast is correct, this could occur sooner than forecasted here. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 19.3N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 19.8N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 20.8N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 22.0N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 23.1N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z 24.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Simon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2026 786
FOPZ15 KNHC 152041
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 110W 34 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Storm Simon Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Oct 2026 21:22:47 GMT