Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
424
ABPZ20 KNHC 311727
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 31 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well southwest of
the Hawaiian Islands and Tropical Storm Gil, located well
south-southwest of the southern Baja California peninsula.
Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (CP92):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area
of low pressure located about 650 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii,
continue to persist. While the system currently lacks a
well-defined low-level center, some development is possible during
the next 24 hours. By this weekend, environmental conditions are
expected to become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of
southwestern Mexico in the next couple of days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the
weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gil are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gil are issued under WMO
header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Beven
Summary for Tropical Storm Gil (EP2/EP072025)
...GIL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 AM HST Thu Jul 31 the center of Gil was located near 13.5, -117.2 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Gil Public Advisory Number 3
Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025792 WTPZ32 KNHC 312034 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gil Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 ...GIL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 117.2W ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gil was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 117.2 West. Gil is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion with some acceleration is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Gil is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Storm Gil Forecast Advisory Number 3
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2025774 WTPZ22 KNHC 312033 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025 2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 117.2W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 120SW 20NW. 4 M SEAS....270NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 117.2W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 116.6W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.4N 119.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.6N 122.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.0N 125.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.7N 132.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.7N 135.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 21.8N 141.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 22.6N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Tropical Storm Gil Forecast Discussion Number 3
Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025000 WTPZ42 KNHC 312034 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 31 2025 Gil has been holding steady since the last advisory. A scatterometer pass from 1729 UTC showed the low-level center near the northern edge of the Central Dense Overcast (CDO) suggesting the cyclone is experiencing moderate vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this cycle, in agreement with the TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. While the scatterometer pass only covered the western half of the storm, it did provide information used to update some of the tropical-storm-force radii. The motion is west-northwestward at 11 kt along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the Baja California peninsula. This general motion, with a gradual increase in forward speed, should continue through the weekend. By early next week, Gil should turn more westward in the trade winds. Only slight adjustments have been made to the latest official track forecast. Global models predict that the vertical wind shear should gradually abate over the next 12 hours or so. After this occurs, the warm sea surface temperatures and ample mid-level moisture should allow Gil to continue to strengthen for the next day or so. By Saturday, the storm is expected to cross the 26 degree isotherm and move over progressively cooler waters. This should induce a steady-to-rapid weakening trend through the end of the forecast period. Gil is still predicted to lose its organized deep convection and become a remnant low by day 4. The intensity guidance predictions have decreased somewhat this cycle and the official forecast now lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 13.5N 117.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 14.4N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 15.6N 122.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 17.0N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 19.7N 132.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 20.7N 135.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 21.8N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1800Z 22.6N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Storm Gil Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2025 786
FOPZ12 KNHC 312034
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM GIL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
2100 UTC THU JUL 31 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 115W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
10N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 120W 34 53 45(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
15N 120W 50 4 75(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
15N 120W 64 1 25(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 125W 34 X 12(12) 41(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
15N 125W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)
15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 33(66) X(66) X(66)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) X(26) X(26)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 2(41) X(41)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11)
20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
Tropical Storm Gil Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 20:36:40 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 31 Jul 2025 21:27:24 GMT