Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
297
ABPZ20 KNHC 160531
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An trough of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
coast of southern Mexico continues to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter
part of this week as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the central east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP3/EP132025)
...MARIO BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 the center of Mario was located near 21.5, -115.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 14
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025 ...MARIO BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 115.0W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 115.0 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast, and Mario should become a remnant low by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 14
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160231 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 115.0W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 115.0W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.6N 116.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 25.3N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 26.0N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 27.2N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025261 WTPZ43 KNHC 160234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025 After its strengthening episode earlier today, Mario has begun a weakening trend. There has been a dramatic decrease in the coverage and intensity of the associated deep convection, making Dvorak classifications problematic. The lastest subjective and objective intensity estimates vary substantially, and the advisory intensity is set at a rather uncertain 50 kt. Given the decrease in convection, this may be a generous estimate. Hopefully an upcoming scatterometer pass will provide more information on the strength of the cyclone. There is a fair amount of scatter in the center fixes, and my best estimate for initial motion is 310/11 kt. Mario should continue to move along the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure system centered over northern Mexico for the next couple of days. The official track forecast is just slightly to the right of the previous one and close to the latest corrected consensus model, HCCA, guidance. Mario will be traversing progressively cooler waters for the next couple of days, with the SSTs below the system dropping below 24 deg C by late tomorrow. Moreover, increasingly strong southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to affect the system for the next 48 hours. The official forecast calls for the system to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 hours, however if the current trend in deep convection persists, this could occur sooner than that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 21.5N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 22.6N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 25.3N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 26.0N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z 27.2N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025 000
FOPZ13 KNHC 160233
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025
0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Mario Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 02:33:51 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2025 03:22:19 GMT