Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
266
ABPZ20 KNHC 080503
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Oct 7 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula, and on Hurricane Priscilla, located a couple
of hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.
South of Southern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located around 100 miles offshore of the Guatemala–Mexico
border remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for development over the next couple of days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week if the
system remains over water. The disturbance is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico. Interests there should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, the disturbance
is expected to produce periods of heavy rainfall along portions of
the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico through the end of
the week, which could lead to localized flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
Summary for Hurricane Priscilla (EP1/EP162025)
...HIGH SURF EXPECTED AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE NEXT DAY AS PRISCILLA MOVES PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... As of 11:00 PM MST Tue Oct 07 the center of Priscilla was located near 20.9, -111.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane Priscilla Public Advisory Number 14a
Issued at 1100 PM MST Tue Oct 07 2025000 WTPZ31 KNHC 080540 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025 1100 PM MST Tue Oct 07 2025 ...HIGH SURF EXPECTED AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OVER THE NEXT DAY AS PRISCILLA MOVES PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 111.8W ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Priscilla. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 111.8 West. Priscilla is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of Baja California Sur through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected for the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). A weather station on Socorro island, located about 155 miles (250 km) south-southeast of Priscilla's eye, recently reported a wind gust of 36 mph (57 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur within the watch area through Wednesday. RAINFALL: 1 to 2 inches of rain are expected in southern Baja California Sur into Wednesday, with local storm totals up to 4 inches as the outer bands of Priscilla reach the area. This rainfall could bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Moisture from Priscilla should bring 1 to 2 inches of rain, with local amounts to 4 inches, to portions of west-central Mexico, which could lead to flash flooding within the area’s terrain. From late this week into this weekend, moisture from Priscilla leads to heavy rainfall and a flash flood risk over portions of the U.S. Desert Southwest. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition to some coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Priscilla Forecast Advisory Number 14
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2025000 WTPZ21 KNHC 080234 TCMEP1 HURRICANE PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025 0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.5W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT.......170NE 130SE 130SW 140NW. 4 M SEAS....270NE 300SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 111.5W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 111.2W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.4N 112.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 65NE 55SE 50SW 45NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.6N 113.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.7N 114.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.9N 115.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.3N 115.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.4N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 111.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Priscilla Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 800 PM MST Tue Oct 07 2025127 WTPZ41 KNHC 080238 TCDEP1 Hurricane Priscilla Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025 800 PM MST Tue Oct 07 2025 While Priscilla remains a large and formidable hurricane, its satellite structure is starting to show signs of decay. The eyewall cloud top temperatures have warmed over the past 3-6 hours, and the last several microwave passes show that the eye is now open to the north. Some of these changes could be due to ocean upwelling, which the hurricane-regional models have been forecasting to occur in the relatively shallow warm waters the large hurricane has been traversing through. While both TAFB and SAB Dvorak CI estimates were constrained at T5.5/102-kt, their data-T numbers have declined, and based on the further degradation on satellite imagery since that time, the initial intensity is being set to 90 kt for this advisory, which is on the lower end of the intensity estimates. Priscilla has resumed a more northwestward motion, estimated at 310/8 kt. The track philosophy remains unchanged, with a northwestward motion at a similar pace expected to continue for the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge remains in place to the northeast of the hurricane. The ridging then becomes eroded and shifted east as a shortwave trough, currently over British Columbia, digs in southward and ultimately cuts off just offshore of the western U.S. coastline. This synoptic evolution will likely cause Priscilla to turn northward from 48-72 hours. However, the cyclone will also become more vertically shallow and may not feel the full effects of the evolving mid-level steering, ultimately slowing down substantially by the end of the forecast. The track guidance this cycle has shifted a little rightward, with the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) aid a notable rightward outlier. The NHC track was adjusted a little right, but not as far right as GDMI, staying between it and the reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) aid. It is worth noting there is quite a bit of along track spread in the ensemble guidance in 48-72 h, so the forward motion at the end of the forecast track is more uncertain than usual. The hurricane appears past its peak tonight with the recent structural decline on satellite imagery. While SHIPS guidance indicates sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) under the hurricane should be in the 28 C range, the HAFS-A/B and HWRF SSTs forecast output suggests the large hurricane has upwelled much cooler ocean waters that may take several days for the satellite-based SST methods to properly depict. With this in mind, the NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous cycle, in good agreement with the intensity aids, showing steady weakening over the next 2-3 days as Priscilla moves into even cooler SSTs. Shear also increases quickly out of the southwest beyond 48 hours, and both the GFS/ECMWF show Priscilla's remaining convection shearing off in 72 h, which will mark when the NHC forecast shows Priscilla as a remnant low near to the central Baja California coastline. The global models show the remnant low dissipating shortly thereafter. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Baja California Sur Pacific coastline within the Tropical Storm Watch area tonight into Wednesday. Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Priscilla. 2. Rainfall associated with Priscilla will impact portions of Baja California Sur into Wednesday. Moisture associated with Priscilla will lead to heavy rainfall across west-central Mexico from tonight into Thursday morning and across the U.S. Desert Southwest from late this week into this weekend. This could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. 3. Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as well as the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition to some coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 20.6N 111.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 21.4N 112.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 22.6N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 23.7N 114.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 24.9N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 26.3N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 27.4N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Hurricane Priscilla Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2025 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 080235
PWSEP1
HURRICANE PRISCILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162025
0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PRISCILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12)
P ABREOJOS 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 21 3(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 12 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
LA PAZ 34 7 6(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
LORETO 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLA CLARION 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 115W 34 9 6(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
25N 115W 34 4 12(16) 30(46) 14(60) 2(62) X(62) X(62)
25N 115W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
25N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Priscilla Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Oct 2025 05:40:26 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Oct 2025 03:31:59 GMT
Summary for Tropical Storm Octave (EP5/EP152025)
...OCTAVE IS HOLDING STEADY AS IT CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Oct 07 the center of Octave was located near 15.2, -118.0 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Octave Public Advisory Number 32
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 07 2025000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080237 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 07 2025 ...OCTAVE IS HOLDING STEADY AS IT CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 118.0W ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 118.0 West. Octave is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn east-northeast and faster forward motion tomorrow into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or two, and Octave is expected to dissipate by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Advisory Number 32
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2025000 WTPZ25 KNHC 080237 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025 0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.0W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.0W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 118.5W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.3N 116.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.2N 114.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 10NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.3N 111.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 118.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Discussion Number 32
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 07 2025137 WTPZ45 KNHC 080238 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 800 PM PDT Tue Oct 07 2025 Satellite imagery shows that Octave continues to produce intermittent bursts of deep convection, primarily across the southern and southwestern portions of the circulation due to easterly shear influencing the system. An earlier ASCAT pass indicated that the system remains intact, though the strongest winds are now confined to the southern semicircle. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are both 3.0/45 kt, while objective estimates range between 25 and 33 kt. Based on these data and the persistent satellite presentation, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is toward the east-southeast, or 100 degrees, at around 6 kt. This motion is expected to continue into early Wednesday as the storm moves along the southern periphery of a mid- to upper-level trough extending southwestward from the U.S. West Coast and beneath the much larger Hurricane Priscilla tracking northwestward several hundred miles to the northeast. A turn toward the northeast, along with some acceleration, is expected late Wednesday into Thursday as Octave moves south of Priscilla and near another developing system (EP90) to its southeast near the southwest coast of Mexico. This forecast track is very similar to the previous NHC advisory and represents a blend of the consensus aids and the Google DeepMind guidance. Given Octave’s compact structure, the system may be able to maintain its intensity into early Wednesday before succumbing to an increasingly hostile environment of strengthening shear and drier air. A steady weakening trend is forecast thereafter, and Octave is expected to dissipate by Thursday as it interacts with Priscilla’s larger circulation to the north and EP90 to its southeast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the middle portion of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 15.2N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 15.3N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 16.2N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 17.3N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
Tropical Storm Octave Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2025 091
FOPZ15 KNHC 080237
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152025
0300 UTC WED OCT 08 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 115W 34 3 21(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
Tropical Storm Octave Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Oct 2025 02:39:40 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Oct 2025 03:26:49 GMT