Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
857
ABPZ20 KNHC 032327
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie, located a couple of hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.
South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Blake
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie (EP1/EP062025)
...FLOSSIE NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM MST Thu Jul 03 the center of Flossie was located near 21.2, -112.4 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie Public Advisory Number 19
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Jul 03 2025000 WTPZ31 KNHC 032029 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 ...FLOSSIE NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 112.4W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 112.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A general west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued steady weakening is expected, and the post-tropical low is forecast to dissipate this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the post-tropical low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 19
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2025000 WTPZ21 KNHC 032029 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 112.4W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 112.4W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 112.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.1N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 112.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON FLOSSIE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 19
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Jul 03 2025000 WTPZ41 KNHC 032030 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 200 PM MST Thu Jul 03 2025 Flossie has lacked organized deep convection for more than 12 hours and no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone. Therefore, the system is now considered a post-tropical low, and this is the last NHC advisory. A 1705 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that the maximum winds have decreased to around 35 kt. The post-tropical cyclone is moving northwestward at 9 kt. This general motion, within the low-level flow, is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A combination of cool waters and dry air should lead to the dissipation of the post-tropical low this weekend. For additional information on the post-tropical low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 21.2N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 24.1N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2025 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 032029
PWSEP1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 20:31:07 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Jul 2025 21:21:35 GMT