Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
519
ABPZ20 KNHC 291726
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 29 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific
basin a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico.
South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore
southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Flossie are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Flossie are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Summary for Tropical Storm Flossie (EP1/EP062025)
...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 12:00 PM CST Sun Jun 29 the center of Flossie was located near 13.6, -100.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Flossie Public Advisory Number 2a
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025653 WTPZ31 KNHC 291739 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 1200 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 ...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 100.1W ABOUT 225 MI...370 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 100.1 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwest to northwestward motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane late Monday or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early next week. This rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within the watch area late Monday and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Advisory Number 2
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025201 WTPZ21 KNHC 291439 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 99.9W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 99.9W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 99.7W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.1N 100.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.2N 102.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.3N 103.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.5N 105.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.7N 107.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.8N 108.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 21.7N 110.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 23.9N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 99.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 2
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291441 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 900 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 Convection has continued to become better organized this morning, with curved banding to the north of the low-level center. Recent infrared satellite imagery depicts that convection is bursting near the low-level center with cold cloud tops near -80C. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T2.5, from both TAFB and SAB. Using these estimates and the recent satellite trends, the intensity is raised to 35 kt for this advisory. Thus, the sixth named system in the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Flossie. Flossie is located within a favorable environment for strengthening with warm SSTs near 30C, moist mid-levels and low to moderate wind shear. As the system continues to become better organized, the latest NHC forecast now depicts steady strengthening, with the storm becoming a hurricane in about 36 h. While not explicitly forecast, there are some above normal SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) probabilities and there is potential for RI, which will have to be monitored in subsequent forecasts. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the higher end of the guidance envelope near the latest HCCA corrected consensus aids. The current motion is estimated to be westward around 280/8 kt, although as the inner core continues to develop there could be some short-term track adjustments. The storm is forecast to begin to move west-northwestward later today then northwestward around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. The latest track forecast is nudged slightly to the right, in between the simple consensus HCCA corrected consensus. Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast. A track even a little more to the right of the official forecast could bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco through early next week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep terrain. 2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for southwestern Mexico, and tropical storm warnings could be required later today or tonight for a portion of the coast of southern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 13.4N 99.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 14.1N 100.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 15.2N 102.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 16.3N 103.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 17.5N 105.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 18.7N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 19.8N 108.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 21.7N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 23.9N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Flossie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 291440
PWSEP1
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
1500 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 3(32)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) 3(28)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 2(29) X(29)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) X(15)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 10(24) X(24) X(24)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 10(47) X(47) X(47)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
15N 100W 34 29 15(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
15N 100W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 14(47) X(47)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) X(17)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Flossie Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 17:39:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 15:26:40 GMT