Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
909
ABPZ20 KNHC 150556
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lala, located a couple hundred miles east-southeast of Hilo,
Hawaii.
The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on
Tropical Depression Hernan, located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
South of Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of
the coast of southern Mexico by the early to middle part of next
week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter
while the system moves westward or west-northwestward well south of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Western Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula by the early to middle
part of next week. Gradual development of this system is possible
thereafter while it moves generally westward across the western
portion of the east Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Summary for Tropical Depression Hernan (EP3/EP082026)
...HERNAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM HST Fri Aug 14 the center of Hernan was located near 16.4, -133.8 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Hernan Public Advisory Number 10
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026000 WTPZ33 KNHC 150836 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Hernan Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082026 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026 ...HERNAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 133.8W ABOUT 1615 MI...2600 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hernan was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 133.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the few days, and Hernan is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area of Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Depression Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 10
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026000 WTPZ23 KNHC 150836 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082026 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 133.8W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 133.8W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 133.2W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.6N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.7N 139.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.8N 141.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.8N 143.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 133.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 10
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150837 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Hernan Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082026 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026 Hernan is currently a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with no active convection. A recent ASCAT overpass showed winds of 25-27 kt in the northwestern quadrant, and based on this and the possibility of undersampling the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 30 kt. Unless convection makes a significant re-appearance, the cyclone is expected to degenerate to a remnant low within the next 12 h. The new forecast calls for the remnant low to decay to a trough by 72 h in agreement with the global models. The initial motion is 275/11 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north should steer Hernan and its remnants westward for the next few days. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little faster than, the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 16.4N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z 16.6N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z 16.7N 139.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 16.8N 141.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z 16.8N 143.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Depression Hernan Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026 000
FOPZ13 KNHC 150836
PWSEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082026
0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2026
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Hernan Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2026 09:28:20 GMT